Professor uses software from the exact area to simulate curves of cases and deaths
Professor Neilo Trindade, a professor in the field of Physics at the Campus São Paulo, has voluntarily helped the Epidemiological Surveillance of the city of Sorocaba to carry out projections of cases and deaths caused by the new coronavirus. Through software Originlab, which he routinely uses to treat data and make graphs in his research area, dosimetry, the IFSP professor has been able to predict the behavior of the case curve with more than 95% accuracy.
Despite working in São Paulo, Neilo lives in Sorocaba and has been making projections for about 3 months. He tells how his work helps the municipality in decision-making. "Sorocaba has almost 700 thousand inhabitants, so the projections are important to assist the technical management of Health as to the behavior of the growth curve of cases in the city, as well as to verify the need to expand the number of beds."
In the image below, we have examples of the projections that are made periodically. The projection made on June 5 showed that 5.300 cases were expected by June 30, and the actual number was 5.400 cases. In the projection of deaths carried out on June 15, 129 deaths by Covid-19 were predicted for the 30th, and the real number was 125. "The deviations were below 5%, showing that the projections are reliable", said Trindade .
The IFSP professor said he was honored to be able to use his knowledge to contribute to tackling the pandemic. He said that he does not know if other municipalities or health agencies use Originalab software to make projections related to Covid-19, but stated that the software is very powerful in data processing and easy to use to simulate curves, requiring training. basic for someone in the health field.
Neilo also said that he is available to assist health authorities who are interested in using the software in his municipality. The teacher's contact email is: .